As economy recovered, the scarcity of immigrant workers found in 2004 first time has attracted wide attention this year after Lunar New Year. We just wonder if this phenomenon reveals the demographic dividend, what the influence it will bring about. We have interviewed many experts to provide deep analysis on the background, source and influence of this phenomenon.
According to Du Yang, researcher from Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, indicated that first we have to know what demographic dividend is, it refers to a country’s labors have accounted bigger share in total population with low bring-up rate, which is beneficial to economy development. In this aspect, demographic dividend has not ended, as labor is still share big part of total population. However, many experts agreed that scarcity of immigrant workers means the turning point of economy is looming. In the long run, this is an opportunity for economy development.
According to statistic, currently the domestic working population is estimated to reach 0.8 billion. In comparison, the total number of world working population is hard to reach this level. In regard to the internal reason of this phenomenon, according to Qu Zhenwu, dean of Renmin University, the conflict between fast growing economy and declining labor is key point. As the birth rate is falling, new working population is obviously declining. However, fast growing economy has large demand towards working population.
Deng Fengtian, deputy dean of Renmin University thinks the expansion of recruitment of universities is another factor. The rate of university attendance in rural area was 15%. Previously, the rate was 7%. In this case, it is estimated that millions of people from rural area attended the university. However, the working population needs common labors.
According to survey of labor demand in 2010 Spring and employment situation of immigrant workers in 2009 from Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of the PRC , the requirement calls for primary level was 25%, for medium level was 7%, zero level for 68%. The recruitment calls for middle school was 49%, and 25% for high school or above, 26% for zero certificates.
as economy is recovering this year, and fast growing of middle and west area plus the back-work habit of immigrants workers in Lantern Festival, an expert said it is not enough to reveal the turning point of demographic dividend. Though the turning point has not come yet, the trend is falling obviously. Expert said based on birth rate and related analysis, demographic dividend is expected to come in the next 5 to 10 years.