According to media, as the global financial system kept stable development, and economy is expected to refresh before year end which encourages the rebound of stock market. Though the future of economy is still invisible, the current situation is better than before. Economy is believed to get rebounded led by the Asia driver. However, massive hot money might result in new round of assets bubble.
The situation is as usual, the emerging market is considered to have a bright future and China is still the focus. Foreign media thinks that China is able to stimulate economy again if needed, it’s not a big deal for the economy to continue the growth of 8%.
According to report from IMF that, the global GDP will rise by 3.1%, it will change the falling expectation of 1.1%. The economy recovery is mainly led by China and India and other emerging economy. The manufacture of China and India have the fast growth in Oct in the past 18 months.
In the report, the global economy growth in 2010 mainly comes from Asia. Thanks to the massive economy stimulus, the growth of China and India is expected to be 9% and 6.4%. The export countries, such like Australia and Brazil will also be beneficial. Japan is facing worse inflation; the economy fell by 5.4%. While the export is rising, the growth is expected to be 1.7% next year.
According to expert from Credit Suisse that , the return of global stock market is expected to be 12%. Thanks to the growth which is high than expected, the growth of return for corporations is expected to be around 30%. Credit Suisse predicts the Asia stock market, excluding Japan will rise to 20% from 15%. Meanwhile, Asia market is said to meet the asset bubble.
The impact from Dubai debt crisis will trouble the market in next few months and influence the risk direction of global market next year. The Dubai incident reminds the investor that the market is full of high leveraged trades. The investors are aware of the sharp increase of high risk assets and emerging market, it needs to be corrected. Even some investors are intended to join market again next year; they will make precise collection of the return. The basic factors will be paid more attention.
Though the economy growth wont be that worse, influenced by the rising unemployment, we should not hold a optimistic view. Kahn, president of IMF indicated that the storm is over, the worst time is past, the economy kept stable development. However, it is still very fragile.
According to media, the situation is that the employment is high, consumers are lagged by the debt, and government is hard to help the economy with endless finance support. Even some countries could keep the high public expense; they are unable to increase the spending. The global economy is still in risk.